Pakistan's Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif announced Friday that the two sides have reached "a final, agreed upon text of the peace deal" -- the furthest along any mediator has put the negotiations publicly. The Strait of Hormuz has been closed since early April. Oil markets have been rattled for months. And now, after three and a half months of intermittent war between the United States and Iran, a written agreement may actually exist.
Whether it gets signed is another question.
What the Deal Would Do
According to reporting from Axios and CNBC, the memorandum of understanding on the table calls for:
- The Strait of Hormuz to reopen immediately, with no tolls, once the deal is signed
- A 60-day ceasefire extension covering Lebanon as well as the main theater of conflict
- Temporary sanctions waivers allowing Iran to sell oil for 60 days, with further relief contingent on compliance
- Nuclear talks to begin during the 60-day window, focused on Iran's stockpile of uranium enriched to 60% purity -- a short technical step from weapons-grade
- Iran to remove mines from the Strait of Hormuz within 30 days
What the deal does not include: nuclear inspections, an enrichment freeze, IAEA access, or any safeguard mechanism for the two-week initial window. Those would be negotiated during the ceasefire period -- if the deal holds.
Trump's Confidence, With Caveats
President Trump told reporters Thursday that the two countries were "finalizing" an agreement that could be signed "maybe over the weekend in Europe," with Vice President JD Vance potentially attending the ceremony. By Friday, a senior administration official told NBC News that signing could happen "in the next few days" -- though the U.S. is not "100 percent" confident the agreement will be consummated.
Trump himself undercut the optimism Friday when he publicly disputed Iran's state media characterization of the deal terms, posting that the Iranian version "has NOTHING to do with the terms that were agreed to, in writing." That exchange -- a mediator claiming it's done, a president disputing the other side's read of the same document -- does not typically precede a smooth signing ceremony.
Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Friday the two sides have "never been closer" on terms. The deal has reportedly received buy-in from Iranian leadership at high levels, but not yet from Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei -- whose approval is required for anything to be binding.
The Political Math Is Ugly on Both Sides
President Trump started this war without a congressional declaration and has conducted it under broad assertions of executive authority. The House voted last week to invoke the War Powers Act to force an end to hostilities -- four Republicans joining Democrats -- though the resolution faces long odds in the Senate and a certain veto if it somehow passed.
Democrats have criticized Trump for starting the war, faulted his conduct of it, and are now hammering the proposed endgame: a deal that gives Iran sanctions relief and leaves its nuclear program functionally intact pending future talks. Hard-line Republicans are furious too, calling the proposed terms capitulation.
"None of their money will be released until they perform." -- Senior Trump administration official, NBC News
That framing -- pay-for-performance sanctions relief -- is the administration's main political defense of a deal that looks considerably different from the "Iran will never have a nuclear weapon" absolutism Trump campaigned on. Whether Khamenei signs a document that locks Iran into inspections-free nuclear talks, and whether the Republican caucus accepts a deal short of regime change, will determine whether this agreement survives the weekend.
What Happens Next
The Strait of Hormuz has been closed since April. Global oil prices have climbed throughout the conflict. Every day it stays closed costs shipping companies, importers, and consumers real money. A deal -- even an imperfect one, even a 60-day pause -- would reopen one of the world's most critical shipping lanes and provide short-term economic relief.
Pakistan, which has served as the primary back-channel mediator throughout the conflict, now has its credibility on the line alongside its claim that the text is "final." Sharif posted publicly, which is unusual for a mediator mid-negotiation. Either he has more certainty than the U.S. and Iran are showing, or he moved faster than both parties were prepared for.
The next 48 to 72 hours will determine whether there is actually a deal to write about, or whether this is one more episode of the war's long ceasefire-extension-and-collapse cycle.
Sources
- Axios: What's in the Iran deal Trump says he's ready to sign (June 12, 2026)
- CNBC: Trump admin says Iran deal signing likely in days, not 100% certain (June 12, 2026)
- NBC News: Live updates -- US-Iran deal, war, Hormuz (June 12, 2026)
- Al Arabiya: Pakistan PM Sharif says final text of US-Iran peace deal agreed (June 12, 2026)
- PBS NewsHour: US and Iran reach tentative deal to extend ceasefire and start new nuclear talks
- Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty: Pakistani PM says final text of US-Iran peace deal has been reached (June 12, 2026)
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