Donald Trump told Axios on Saturday that the U.S.-Iran war is 50 percent headed toward a signed deal and 50 percent headed toward renewed bombing. He is meeting with Steve Witkoff, Jared Kushner, and Vice President JD Vance to review Iran's latest offer before announcing a decision as soon as Sunday.
The stakes are concrete. Since the U.S. and Israel launched the war against Iran on February 28, the conflict has choked the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for roughly 20 percent of global oil, pushed U.S. inflation to its highest level in years, and triggered what Gulf states have called the worst global energy crisis in decades.
The Framework on the Table
Iran's foreign ministry confirmed Saturday that the two sides are in the "final stage" of discussions on a Memorandum of Understanding. The MOU, as currently structured, would end hostilities, gradually reopen the Strait of Hormuz, lift the U.S. blockade of Iranian ports, and release frozen Iranian assets. A 30-to-60-day window for deeper negotiations would follow.
Trump's own Truth Social post framed it as largely done: "An Agreement has been largely negotiated, subject to finalization between the United States of America, the Islamic Republic of Iran, and the various other Countries."
Pakistani Field Marshal Asim Munir, who has been mediating between the parties, left Tehran on Saturday after meeting top Iranian officials. Pakistan called the outcome "encouraging progress toward a final understanding." A deal was not finalized.
Where It Breaks Down
Iran's state media pushed back immediately. Iran's Fars news agency reported that the Strait of Hormuz would remain under Iranian management under the latest exchanged text, directly contradicting Trump's claim that the waterway "will be opened." Iran's foreign ministry spokesperson said the U.S. had put forth "conflicting stances several times" and that the two sides remain both "very far and very close" to agreement.
The bigger problem is uranium. Trump has publicly demanded Iran surrender its highly enriched uranium and dismantle the Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan nuclear sites, which the U.S. bombed during earlier phases of the conflict. Iran wants to defer nuclear talks until after a formal ceasefire is in place. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, speaking to reporters in New Delhi, said Iran "can never have a nuclear weapon" and must hand over its enriched uranium. Those requirements are not addressed in the current MOU.
The Advisers Are Split
Sen. Lindsey Graham told Axios that regional leaders are actively divided. Some are urging Trump to strike Iran again to weaken the regime before signing, arguing that another round of attacks would produce better terms. Others are urging him to take the deal on the table, warning that Iran retains enough capability to "destroy substantial Gulf oil operations" if the war resumes.
"Count me as a strong skeptic that Iran can't be prevented from terrorizing the Strait of Hormuz and that we can't defend vital interests in the region after massive attacks against Iran," Graham said.
Five regional mediators (Qatar, Egypt, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Pakistan) held numerous calls with both Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and Witkoff over the 24 hours preceding Trump's announcement. The talks remained open Saturday night.
Netanyahu Is Watching
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his aides have been in constant contact with the White House about the emerging agreement. Trump described Netanyahu as "torn." Israeli officials say Netanyahu is highly concerned about the deal and has actively urged Trump to launch another round of strikes before signing anything.
A senior Israeli official confirmed that Netanyahu is in touch with the White House about the deal's terms.
"I think one of two things will happen: either I hit them harder than they have ever been hit, or we are going to sign a deal that is good." Donald Trump, Axios interview, May 23, 2026
What Happens Next
Rubio said from New Delhi: "There might be some news later today." Trump says he will decide by Sunday. What he has not said is who will account for the four months of energy market disruption, rising inflation, and civilian casualties that preceded this decision point.
Sources
- Axios: Exclusive: Trump says he's "50/50" on Iran deal, decision by Sunday
- CNBC: Trump: Iran deal to reopen Strait of Hormuz 'largely negotiated'
- NPR: Trump says a deal with Iran and opening of Strait of Hormuz are 'largely negotiated'
- The Hill: Trump says Iran deal 'largely negotiated,' Strait of Hormuz will be opened
- Times of Israel: U.S.-Iran signal deal could be near as Trump says he's 50/50 on agreement or strikes
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