Three years of clean energy investment are now at risk. The One Big Beautiful Bill, signed by President Trump on July 4, 2025, is the largest rollback of federal clean energy policy in American history. Rhodium Group estimates the law will increase the average household energy bill by $78 to $192 per year by 2035, slash new clean power capacity additions by 57-62%, and put more than $522 billion in announced clean energy investment at risk of cancellation.
What Three Years of Investment Built
Before examining what the law does, the baseline matters. The Inflation Reduction Act, passed in August 2022, triggered the fastest ramp-up in clean energy manufacturing investment in U.S. history. In the two years before the IRA, manufacturers invested roughly $9 billion a year in clean energy facilities. Between enactment and Q1 2025, that figure jumped to $42 billion annually, a 4.5x increase, producing $115 billion in total manufacturing investment. The law created more than 330,000 new clean energy jobs in its first two years, with companies announcing 380 clean technology manufacturing facilities.
These were not coastal boutique projects. Battery manufacturing plants opened in Georgia, Kentucky, Michigan, and Ohio. Solar module factories came online in Texas and North Carolina. Wind turbine component production expanded across the industrial Midwest. By Q1 2025, nearly half of the 380 announced facilities were already operational. The BlueGreen Alliance projected the IRA could support 9 million jobs by 2030 if carried to full implementation.
"Between the IRA's enactment and Q1 2025, clean energy manufacturing investment jumped 4.5x, from roughly $9 billion annually to $42 billion per year."
What the One Big Beautiful Bill Does to That Investment
The OBBBA accelerates the phase-out of nearly every consumer clean energy tax credit, terminates wind and solar production and investment tax credits for facilities that do not begin construction before July 4, 2026, and ends electric vehicle credits. For manufacturers, the law imposes strict sourcing requirements tied to foreign entity restrictions that add compliance complexity and cost. The Congressional Budget Office estimates the law adds $3.4 trillion to the national debt over ten years.
The energy bill numbers are direct from Rhodium Group's July 2025 modeling. Household electricity rates will rise 2-4% by 2035, driven by the loss of the cheapest, fastest-to-deploy generation sources (wind and solar) from the tax credit framework. With fewer electric vehicles on the road, gasoline consumption rises 4-11% by 2035, pushing gasoline prices up 1-3%. Industrial energy expenditures increase $7-11 billion per year by 2035. The 10 states hardest hit see average household energy bills rise $115-314, or 48-64% above the national average increase.
On jobs, projections show up to 840,000 lost jobs by the end of the decade, concentrated in clean manufacturing, construction, and the EV supply chain. The $522 billion in outstanding clean energy investments that have been announced but not yet come online faces cancellation risk: $263 billion tied to wind, solar, and storage projects; $110 billion in announced manufacturing investment that has not yet broken ground. Natural gas prices rose 56% in 2025 compared to 2024, and without the cushion of expanded renewable capacity, American consumers pay those price swings with no hedge.
The comparison that matters here is economic, not ecological. A country that invests in domestic clean energy manufacturing creates jobs that cannot be offshored and energy production that cannot be held hostage to commodity price shocks or foreign supply chains. The U.S. model that works is regulated capitalism with a strong domestic industrial base, publicly supported where market signals fail to price in external costs like pollution and national security risk. The OBBBA dismantles that model in favor of fossil fuel dependence at the precise moment when cheaper, domestically produced alternatives were becoming the faster and more affordable option. The CBO confirms it costs $3.4 trillion in new national debt to make that choice.
Sources
- Rhodium Group: Assessing the Impacts of the Final One Big Beautiful Bill
- E2: Clean Economy Works, Economic Impact Report
- Canary Media: Trump's Big Beautiful Law Tethers the U.S. to the Past
- Evergreen Action: Republican Megabill Is a Disaster for Energy Costs and Jobs
- White House Archives: Two Years In, the Inflation Reduction Act
- Center for American Progress: The One Big Beautiful Bill Act Is Crushing America's Electricity System
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